I'm working on a much longer 2008/09 projections post, but I wanted to share something interesting. Specifically, how good Bobby Zamora was prior to last season. You can see Fulham's Goals Created leaders for last season on the right-side of this page. This gives a good picture of the attacking contribution, essentially assigning credit for each of the team's goals to individual players based on goals scored and goals assisted. Thus, adding up the total GC for each player on the team will always equal the team's goal total.
In projecting Bobby Zamora's 08/09 season, I found that he led West Ham in goals created over the 05/06 and 06/07 seasons. He was better than Yossi Benayoun and Nigel Reo-Coker in the same period, better than Carlos Tevez in 06/07, and also more productive than Dean Ashton and Carlton Cole's 2007/08, the season in which these two players surpassed Zamora on West Ham's depth chart. GC is a counting stat, so perhaps even more impressive is that Zamora did this in somewhat limited playing time.
Zamora's 7.138 and 7.833 GC in those two seasons would be good enough to place him right behind Simon Davies at #2. I had to include the fitness concerns in my final projection (which I hope to be posting today or tomorrow), so they may not look impressive, but my gut feeling is that he's going to outperform and surprise us.
can you run Zoltan Gera,
can you run Zoltan Gera, Colin?
Season Min GC 2004/05 2728 6.
Obviously 06/07 and 07/08 were in the Championship, and I normally multiply CCC goal scoring rates by .6 to get a rough Premiership equivalent (and even then, he's still a very good player), but I think his 04/05 numbers tell us that he has the ability to do better than that.
I suppose at some point we
I suppose at some point we need to be able to get to a gc above replacement don't we? So we can get to the point where we know that running Gera over Lee Cook will be worth 4 goals a season, and therefore one Premiership place (or whatever) and therefore x pounds. Somehow defensive contribution has to go in there too.
Yep. I think we can compare
Yep. I think we can compare GC of two players and find out how many more goals one is worth in attack. While I do have some defensive metrics that I like, I'm still need to fit them into a proper unit of measure - specifically, goals.
It would be very interesting to put a cash value on each player, in terms of value over a generic free agent. Might give us some insight on what a player's true transfer value is.
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