Do we really want Andy Johnson?

Major League baseball player Chris Capuano is a middle of the road pitcher, a one-time All-Star, and a frequent visitor to the disabled list. He has one thing that he does really well, and that is picking off runners at first base. With a runner on, he's often able to pull outs out of nowhere, which have saved him from sticky situations on many occasions. Several people, including his teammates, have said his pickoff move is illegal, yet he rarely gets called on it by the umpires.

Andy Johnson also has a pickoff move. He wins penalties, and lots of them. Unfortunately for Johnson, in the past could of years referees have begun to agree that his falls in the box are not legitimate, and his penalty totals have dwindled accordingly.

With news stories popping up that we may put in a bid for Johnson, there has been plenty of discussion on the message boards. In the meantime, we went out and signed Bobby Zamora from West Ham. The move was highly unpopular at first, but was met with reluctant acceptance once the deal was made official. Zamora isn't a bad player by any means, but fans were hoping for a bigger name. Perhaps an international for a high-profile footballing nation. Someone like Andy Johnson. Going by the rumors, it would likely cost over £10m in transfer fees to land the Everton striker, while Zamora's cost was about half of that. Is Johnson twice the player that Zamora is?

Since 2003/04, both players have spent three seasons in the Premier League, and two in the Championship. Good, this makes them easy to compare:

GS SB Min G Pens A SH SG SH % SG % G/90
Johnson 164 14 14465 81 20 26 370 237 0.219 0.342 0.504
Zamora 97 55 8408 34 0 19 200 121 0.170 0.281 0.364

At first glance, Johnson does seem quite a bit better. More goals, better shot percentages, better strike rates. But look at all of those penalties! Fact is, they haven't been a huge factor since the 2004/05 season. Since then, his numbers have been fairly average. Let's compare the two again, this time ignoring penalties:

GS SB Min G Pens A SH SG SH % SG % G/90
Johnson 164 14 14465 61 20 26 350 217 0.174 0.281 0.380
Zamora 97 55 8408 34 0 19 200 121 0.170 0.281 0.364

Suddenly, the two look very comparable. Taking into consideration Zamora's other advantages - size, ball-winning ability, other non-goalscoring attributes, and of course the magic that are INTANGIBLES - I'd even go as far as to take Zamora for the same amount of money.

Colin: You are a legend.

Colin: You are a legend. More great stats as usual. I'm not against signing Johnson. I think he and Zamora could form a good partnership. But he's vastly overrated because of that one season in the Premiership where something like 8 out of the 20 goals he scored were penalties. I remember that when he was a kid at Birmingham, he was played all over the pitch because he wasn't considered a natural goalscorer and so the club didn't know what to do with a player who otherwise was clearly talented. He is a strange player, in essence a big guy in a little guy's body. His work-rate and strength are excellent. Add a few inches and he could be Mark Hughes (who also wasn't huge but was the best back-to-goal player I've ever seen). And his style of play could really help what is looking to be an incredibly attacking midfield flourish. But £10.5m for a 5'7" forward who is neither absolutely prolific nor a bad of tricks is a bit ridiculous.

Someone had a story last

Someone had a story last year on the fastest sprinters in the Premiership. Johnson was either #1, or very close to it. He's obviously a very gifted athlete, but his shot percentages (minus penalties) suggest that he's probably not one to count on for goals.

I'm sure he has a place somewhere on the pitch, but I think I'd rather let someone else spend the money to try and figure it out.

Johnson Zamora

While removing penalties evens up their rate stats, the fact is that johnson has kept up that pretty decent scoring record in 6000 more minutes. Any value based stat, a football win shares if you seill, would take that into consideration. Some of that may be injuries or bad luck, even managerial incompetence, but johnson has had 6000 more minutes to be bad in, to slump, to get injured etc... and hasn't.

sorry, should read if you

sorry, should read if you will

You're right, and that's my

You're right, and that's my biggest concern about Zamora. I think that he'll do a good job for us if he stays healthy, but I'm a bit skeptical. For half the price, I'd probably take my chances with Zamora (that's ignoring other attributes he brings to the table, such as ability to play as a target man - so maybe I should leave out names for this example), but there is definitely value in durability. If the durable player only cost £1m more, I'd definitely go with him.

I think Johnson is a good

I think Johnson is a good signing for Fulham, but he has cost too much money. How he has cost Fulham more than he cost Everton is beyond me.

Post new comment

The content of this field is kept private and will not be shown publicly.
  • Web page addresses and e-mail addresses turn into links automatically.
  • Allowed HTML tags: <a> <em> <strong> <cite> <code> <ul> <ol> <li> <dl> <dt> <dd>
  • Lines and paragraphs break automatically.
  • Images can be added to this post.
  • You can embed tablemanager tables within your nodes using the following syntax:
    [tablemanager:table_id,pagination,admin_links,column=?|start=?|end=?,attribute=?|attribute=?|...]

More information about formatting options

CAPTCHA
This question is for testing whether you are a human visitor and to prevent automated spam submissions.
5 + 8 =
Solve this simple math problem and enter the result. E.g. for 1+3, enter 4.